The final nail is in the coffin
- August 1st, 2011
- Posted in Blog
- By Jeremy
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The debt ceiling drama is finally over, and as far as I’m concerned only one thing was proven in all of this: A U.S. government default will not be a nominal default, it will be a hyperinflationary one.
This was it, as Michael Jackson would say.
This was the moment of truth, the time when my thesis would really be put to the test. And now I have finally been thoroughly convinced of what the future of the United States will look like.
The question to be answered in the last few weeks boiled down to this: Would the U.S. finally swallow its bitter medicine, or will it continue to kick-the-can and eventually meet a much more grievous fate? In my mind, this has been answered. The final nail is in the coffin.
If the U.S. government had refused to go further into debt and instead the public treasury was forced to live within its means, then painful as it would initially be, the ship would ultimately be righted. I would have been proven dead wrong on my expectation for a hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar. But that is not what happened.
Don’t get me wrong, this outcome is not what I hoped for. It is not bittersweet, it’s even beyond bitter. It’s just plain horrible.
In a few years I would have loved to have been humbled by missing the mark on my hyperinflation forecast. But that won’t be the case now.
There are two astonishing facets of this debt drama that have revealed themselves over the course of the last few weeks. These provide the foundation for my nail-in-the-coffin declaration.
The first is concerning the D.C. politicians. These clowns have proven once and for all that they simply do not have the stomach to make the cuts necessary for the U.S. to get its fiscal house in order. Maybe this one is not so astonishing.
The second facet of this circus which should be considered has to do with the voters. Just like their representatives, the voters themselves proved that they too do not have the stomach to make the cuts necessary in order for their own treasury to remain solvent. What’s more, the frenzy they were whipped into by the demagogues and boogeymen was almost comical.
Get this: American voters were told that their treasury, which takes in over $2 trillion a year was going to default on interest payments that amount to a little over $300 billion a year. This caused outright hysteria. I even noticed it among New Zealanders.
It’s almost as if nobody has ever been in debt before. Not even that, it’s almost as if nobody can do some simple math.
Look, you don’t have to default on a payment of 30 cents if you have $2.20. You don’t need to extend your line of credit to pay the 30 cents, either. Even a product of the American public school system should be able to figure that one out.
The ridiculous thing about all of this is that total U.S. government debt is well north of the often cited $14 trillion and change. The treasury uses accounting techniques that would land any private corporation in court–the most blatant of which is that they just simply don’t count their pension liabilities.
In any case, I’m glad that’s all over.
I’ll be watching for a significant correction in all things that have moved conspicuously of late (like gold and the NZD) as the world breathes a sigh of relief and “normal” market trends kick back into gear.
If we’re lucky, the can still has another 2 or 3 years of road left, but it’s now a certainty that the road leads off a cliff.